JOURNAL ENTRY #64
May 1, 2010
Stephen Hawking created a stir last week when he said, in an interview about the possibility of contacting aliens, that it would be a good idea for humans to keep their heads down. That they might well be dangerous. I found myself thinking of Damon Knight’s famous pale smiling creatures arriving with cookbooks.
He’s right, of course, in that they might be dangerous. I’ve always been inclined to believe that cruelty derives from a lack of empathy, which implies stupidity. Only dummies are vicious. But it’s probably a naïve notion. Even if it’s true, though, it’s not a bad idea to keep in mind that bright people give us technology, but politicians and lunatics get to use it.
The reality regarding Hawking’s proposition is that any aliens, even barbarous types with spaceships, are probably much too far to constitute a threat. I think I’ve mentioned before in these pages that if we attempted a flight to Alpha Centauri at the velocity we achieved going to the Moon, it would take upward of 50,000 years to get there. One way. Hard to imagine keeping an invasion force happy for even a tiny fraction of that.
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The media mail problem seems to have gone away. We are going to settle in at $3 P&H for any autographed books ordered through this website. That’s up a buck, but we’ve been losing money on shipping for years. Even padded envelopes have become expensive. One of the things SF writers never touch, and we never talk about at cons, is what happens to the economy if the inflation of the last sixty years continues. I bought my first gasoline at 23c/gal. And complained because 7c of it went for taxes.
Almost everything else has gone up by a factor of ten to fifteen. Postage was 3c for first class. Packaged pies that now cost a buck were 7c. I used to pay 11c to get into the movies. I worked several years at the Penn Fruit, a Philadelphia supermarket, while I was in college, and it was no easy task for a customer to spend $20. When I started teaching in 1963, my first salary was $4500/yr.
If the trend continues, we’ll be pushing money around in wheelbarrows.
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I’ve received an unusual honor. Thursday evening I’ll be at Brunswick High School to present awards to a pair of outstanding students from the JROTC program. The awards are given by the Golden Isles contingent of the Military Officers’ Assn of America. They are intended to recognize various leadership achievements.
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Two weeks ago, I invited comments on the feelings of readers concerning Mars missions. Should we go? Does it matter? Does anybody really care? Some responses:
I have been giving some deep thoughts to Obama’s announcements concerning NASA. Need more info, but I have also lost that feeling of excitement concerning our efforts in manned flight.--Brian Ball
We had an established timetable to revisit the moon, with a possible colony and travel from Earth orbit to Mars down the line. I am 100% in favor of colonizing space and exploring the solar system. Of course funding is a problem and this president has essentially killed NASA and given up American dreams of space exploration. So, what can you do? The dream will have to wait and hopefully one day we’ll be in a position to do something about it. --Kevin Sargeant
As for your comment about Mars, my enthusiasm has dimmed also. Not because of Mars but because every president since Bush 41 has laid out a vision for NASA which is changed by the next president. I have no problem with the new vision set by Obama but I had no problem with the vision that Bush 43 set either. Long term funding is definitely a problem. My heart says we will not see humans on Mars in my lifetime (I am 53) but I am a willful optimist. I think that we will see past our petty concerns and really get that great adventure going. I still have a dream that we will find some form of life on Mars, even if only the fossil remains of life.--John Alcide
I do think Obama is trying to do the right thing, at least what he and his space advisors believe is right. NASA can’t keep doing the same thing forever. Bush’s plan to use Constellation to return to the Moon was a clear grab at nostalgia, which would resonate more strongly with an older, more conservative, segment of voters. Whereas Obama thinks he can appeal to the younger crowd by saying, “The Moon? That‘s your grandpa’s generation. Mars? Deep space? That‘s our generation.
Will it happen? Will the funding be there? I go back to the financial/burden analysis: If by removing NASA involvement in the development and construction of what amounts to a LEO freight and passenger service and farming it out to a private operation that‘s used mostly its own capital to demonstrate ability and safety and thereby save NASA a lot of money and effort, then hopefully NASA can focus on better, longer-range missions, like those he discussed at the Cape a week ago. I think Constellation , like the shuttle, was turning into a project/flight system that tried to do too many things at once. The Russians have a more robust system with rockets and capsules built to do a specific job and nothing more. They have lost far fewer people and have kept their relative costs down and have the ability to get people up and down a lot faster. Granted cramped little capsules are not as sexy as wanna-be starships but it works and that’s what really counts in any sustainable endeavor.
--Chris Moore
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Meanwhile, the years go by, and the stars remain silent. Question: If we actually hear a signal, an undeniable indicator that there’s someone out there, what would be the reaction of the general public? (If you choose to respond, but you wish to remain anonymous, please indicate.) Jack